Know if you will pass the challenge — before you find out
Track every prop firm challenge with the rules it actually has: profit target, daily loss, trailing drawdown, minimum days, consistency. Then 10,000 Monte Carlo runs on your last 90 trading days show your real odds of passing.
- Presets for the main prop firms, or your own rules
- Trailing drawdown and consistency handled properly
- Probability of passing, simulated from your history
- Status detected on its own: on track, at risk, failed, funded
On every plan. The Monte Carlo odds come with every paid plan.
The challenge rules, the drawdown floor following your high, and your odds of passing from simulated runs.
Delirium of Traders- Passed 71%
- Failed 26%
- Indeterminate 3%
Monte Carlo estimate: resamples your historical trading days thousands of times (rescaled to this account’s size) and checks how often you would have passed the challenge under its exact rules — target, drawdown, daily loss, consistency — before violating one.
The rules, the way the firm actually writes them
A challenge is not one number. It is a profit target, a daily loss, a drawdown that may or may not trail, a minimum number of days and a consistency rule — and they all have to hold at once.
Presets that match the real plans
The firms that most futures traders use are already in there with their plans, their account sizes and their rules: Topstep, My Funded Futures, Apex, IQ Capital. Pick the plan you bought and the rules come with it.
If your firm is not in the list, or your plan has a quirk, you write the rules yourself and everything else works the same.
- Verified presets for Topstep, My Funded Futures, Apex and IQ Capital
- Or your own rules, written by hand
- Profit target, daily loss, drawdown — trailing handled properly
- Minimum days and consistency, the two that catch people out
One card per challenge
Where you are, against every rule, without doing the arithmetic yourself on a Sunday evening.
Progress against the target
How much of the profit target is done, and how much room is left before the daily loss and the drawdown bite.
Status, detected on its own
On track, at risk, failed or funded. You do not set it — it follows from your trades and the rules of that plan.
Trailing drawdown, done right
The cap that follows your high-water mark is the rule that fails most accounts. It is tracked as the firm computes it, not approximated.
Consistency
The rule that stops one enormous day from carrying the whole challenge, watched while there is still time to do something about it.
Linked to the account
The challenge and the trading account are two views of the same thing, so nothing has to be typed twice.
Several at once
Challenges and funded accounts side by side, which is how most people actually run this.
The odds of passing, before you find out the hard way
10,000 Monte Carlo runs on your own last 90 trading days — not on a win rate you type in, not on an average trader.
A fan of outcomes, not a promise
The simulation replays 10,000 possible continuations of the challenge, built from your own last 90 trading days, and shows them as a fan: the paths that end funded, the ones that hit the daily loss, the ones that run out of room.
It applies the exact rules of the challenge — the trailing cap, the daily loss, consistency, the minimum days — and tells you which one ends the attempts that fail, because passing on a chart and passing under the real terms are two different things.
- 10,000 simulations on your last 90 trading days
- A fan chart of the possible outcomes, not a single number
- Applies the trailing cap, the daily loss and consistency
- Shows which rule ends the attempts that fail
At a glance
The short version, and the one detail worth knowing before you start.
A probability is not a permission slip. The simulation says what your own numbers imply about a set of rules; it does not know what tomorrow does, and a comfortable percentage is not a reason to size up. Prop rules also change — when your firm updates a plan, check the preset against the contract you actually signed.
The rest of the journal
Stop doing the arithmetic on Sunday night
Set the challenge up once and it keeps score for you, rule by rule.
Free plan, no card. Paid plans open soon, from €19.90 a month.